Humanity Forecast

How fertility shapes humanity's future

UN data through 2100, then our scenario model to 2500. Drag the slider. Pick a country.

1B trajectories192 nations100 scenarios
Forecast engine

World population forecast

Move the fertility slider to compare long-range population paths after the UN horizon ends in 2100.

View country
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)1.8Below replacementLoading data...
0.51.02.1 replacement3.05.0
Peak
Median path
2200
Median path
2300
Median path
2500
Median path
Below 1M by 2500
Modeled probability
Loading simulation data

Preparing the world view and long-range scenario band.

Solid black = historical (OWID 1800-1950, UN census 1950-2024). Blue = UN projection to 2100. Colored band = post-2100 scenario (10M simulated trajectories; shading shows the 5th-95th percentile range). All slider positions share the same UN path through 2100, so the chosen TFR only changes the long-range tail. Beyond 2100 these should be read as scenario illustrations, not exact forecasts.
Fertility engine

Global & Country Fertility Rates

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children per woman. At 2.1 (“replacement level”), population stabilizes. The current world average is 2.25 (UN WPP 2024), but two-thirds of humanity already lives below replacement. Select any country to see its fertility trajectory from 1950 to 2100.

|
— — Dashed (1900-1950): Gapminder estimates━━━ Solid (1950-2024): UN WPP 2024━━━ Teal: selected country- - - Green dashed: replacement level (2.1)
Country atlas

Population & Fertility by Country

Click any country for its full interactive forecast. Toggle between Population and Fertility views. Historical data before 1950 uses modern-border estimates.

Country Atlas

Population forecasts from 1950 to 2500 under different scenarios.

198 of 198 entries shown
Scenario
Filter
Current Scenario
UN Medium Variant (TFR -> 1.84)UN data through 2100, selected scenario afterward.

Country Forecasts

Sortable data grid on desktop, cards on mobile. Click any row to explore.

198 entries, sorted live
#1
BRICS
MultipleMultipleTFR 1.68
-84%
2024
3.96B
2100
3.56B
~2500
617M
Historical
1950: 1.19B
2000: 3.14B
Long Range
~2200: 2.07B
~2300: 1.35B
#2
Africa
MultipleMultipleTFR 4.06
-41%
2024
1.51B
2100
3.81B
~2500
891M
Historical
1950: 227M
2000: 829M
Long Range
~2200: 3.63B
~2300: 2.49B
#3
India
Hindi 30%HinduTFR 1.96$3K
-84%
2024
1.45B
2100
1.51B
~2500
233M
Historical
1950: 346M
2000: 1.06B
Long Range
~2200: 861M
~2300: 535M
#4
China
Standard ChineseUnaffiliatedTFR 1.01$13K
-97%
2024
1.42B
2100
633M
~2500
39.0M
Historical
1950: 544M
2000: 1.27B
Long Range
~2200: 175M
~2300: 91.0M
#5
G7
MultipleChristianTFR 1.49
-49%
2024
789M
2100
801M
~2500
401M
Historical
1950: 463M
2000: 697M
Long Range
~2200: 679M
~2300: 587M
#6
Latin America
Spanish/PortugueseChristianTFR 1.79
-87%
2024
657M
2100
609M
~2500
88.0M
Historical
1950: 164M
2000: 515M
Long Range
~2200: 330M
~2300: 198M
#7
North America
English/Spanish/FrenchChristianTFR 1.67
-42%
2024
516M
2100
605M
~2500
297M
Historical
1950: 196M
2000: 411M
Long Range
~2200: 521M
~2300: 445M
#8
European Union
MultipleChristianTFR 1.42
-71%
2024
450M
2100
348M
~2500
129M
Historical
1950: 328M
2000: 428M
Long Range
~2200: 237M
~2300: 191M
#9
United States
English 82%ChristianTFR 1.62$81K
-31%
2024
345M
2100
421M
~2500
239M
Historical
1950: 154M
2000: 281M
Long Range
~2200: 395M
~2300: 349M
#10
Indonesia
Bahasa IndonesiaMuslimTFR 2.11$5K
-85%
2024
283M
2100
296M
~2500
43.0M
Historical
1950: 68.8M
2000: 216M
Long Range
~2200: 177M
~2300: 109M
#11
Pakistan
Urdu 8%MuslimTFR 3.55$1K
-72%
2024
251M
2100
511M
~2500
71.0M
Historical
1950: 35.8M
2000: 155M
Long Range
~2200: 403M
~2300: 241M
#12
Nigeria
EnglishChristianTFR 4.38$2K
-74%
2024
233M
2100
477M
~2500
61.0M
Historical
1950: 37.3M
2000: 126M
Long Range
~2200: 389M
~2300: 227M
#13
Brazil
PortugueseChristianTFR 1.61$10K
-89%
2024
212M
2100
163M
~2500
23.0M
Historical
1950: 53.4M
2000: 174M
Long Range
~2200: 81.0M
~2300: 49.0M
#14
Bangladesh
BanglaMuslimTFR 2.14$3K
-88%
2024
174M
2100
209M
~2500
21.0M
Historical
1950: 41.2M
2000: 135M
Long Range
~2200: 109M
~2300: 61.0M
#15
Russia
RussianChristianTFR 1.46$14K
-70%
2024
145M
2100
126M
~2500
43.0M
Historical
1950: 103M
2000: 147M
Long Range
~2200: 91.0M
~2300: 73.0M
#16
Ethiopia
AmharicChristianTFR 3.91$1K
-14%
2024
132M
2100
367M
~2500
113M
Historical
1950: 17.7M
2000: 67.4M
Long Range
~2200: 343M
~2300: 253M
#17
Mexico
SpanishChristianTFR 1.89$14K
-87%
2024
131M
2100
130M
~2500
17.0M
Historical
1950: 27.6M
2000: 98.6M
Long Range
~2200: 69.0M
~2300: 41.0M
#18
Japan
JapaneseUnaffiliatedTFR 1.22$34K
-81%
2024
124M
2100
76.8M
~2500
23.0M
Historical
1950: 86.4M
2000: 127M
Long Range
~2200: 45.0M
~2300: 35.0M
#19
Egypt
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.74$3K
-63%
2024
117M
2100
202M
~2500
43.0M
Historical
1950: 21.1M
2000: 73.1M
Long Range
~2200: 151M
~2300: 101M
#20
Philippines
FilipinoChristianTFR 1.89$4K
-94%
2024
116M
2100
114M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 18.8M
2000: 79.6M
Long Range
~2200: 55.0M
~2300: 27.0M
#21
DR Congo
FrenchChristianTFR 5.98$660
+5%
2024
109M
2100
431M
~2500
115M
Historical
1950: 12.3M
2000: 50.5M
Long Range
~2200: 493M
~2300: 351M
#22
Viet Nam
VietnameseFolkTFR 1.90$4K
-87%
2024
101M
2100
91.7M
~2500
13.0M
Historical
1950: 25.1M
2000: 77.2M
Long Range
~2200: 49.0M
~2300: 29.0M
#23
Iran
Persian and Persian dialects 58%MuslimTFR 1.68$5K
-88%
2024
91.6M
2100
80.0M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 16.5M
2000: 66.4M
Long Range
~2200: 41.0M
~2300: 25.0M
#24
Türkiye
TurkishMuslimTFR 1.62$13K
-94%
2024
87.5M
2100
65.3M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 21.0M
2000: 65.4M
Long Range
~2200: 27.0M
~2300: 15.0M
#25
Germany
GermanChristianTFR 1.45$55K
-63%
2024
84.6M
2100
70.9M
~2500
31.0M
Historical
1950: 69.8M
2000: 81.8M
Long Range
~2200: 55.0M
~2300: 47.0M
#26
Thailand
ThaiBuddhistTFR 1.20$7K
-87%
2024
71.7M
2100
45.6M
~2500
9.00M
Historical
1950: 20.4M
2000: 63.0M
Long Range
~2200: 23.0M
~2300: 17.0M
#27
United Kingdom
EnglishChristianTFR 1.55$50K
-61%
2024
69.1M
2100
74.3M
~2500
27.0M
Historical
1950: 50.1M
2000: 59.1M
Long Range
~2200: 53.0M
~2300: 43.0M
#28
Tanzania
SwahiliChristianTFR 4.54$1K
+82%
2024
68.6M
2100
263M
~2500
125M
Historical
1950: 7.63M
2000: 34.3M
Long Range
~2200: 339M
~2300: 281M
#29
France
French 100%ChristianTFR 1.64$45K
-53%
2024
66.5M
2100
68.5M
~2500
31.0M
Historical
1950: 41.9M
2000: 59.5M
Long Range
~2200: 55.0M
~2300: 45.0M
#30
South Africa
IsiZulu 23.8%ChristianTFR 2.21$6K
-52%
2024
64.0M
2100
94.3M
~2500
31.0M
Historical
1950: 13.0M
2000: 47.2M
Long Range
~2200: 81.0M
~2300: 59.0M
#31
Italy
ItalianChristianTFR 1.21$39K
-85%
2024
59.3M
2100
35.4M
~2500
9.00M
Historical
1950: 46.4M
2000: 57.3M
Long Range
~2200: 19.0M
~2300: 13.0M
#32
Kenya
EnglishChristianTFR 3.17$2K
-81%
2024
56.4M
2100
104M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 5.77M
2000: 30.6M
Long Range
~2200: 73.0M
~2300: 41.0M
#33
Myanmar
BurmeseBuddhistTFR 2.10$1K
-94%
2024
54.5M
2100
49.7M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 17.7M
2000: 45.3M
Long Range
~2200: 25.0M
~2300: 13.0M
#34
Colombia
SpanishChristianTFR 1.63$7K
-87%
2024
52.9M
2100
47.1M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 11.8M
2000: 39.1M
Long Range
~2200: 25.0M
~2300: 15.0M
#35
South Korea
KoreanUnaffiliatedTFR 0.73$36K
-94%
2024
51.7M
2100
21.8M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 19.8M
2000: 46.8M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#36
Sudan
ArabicMuslimTFR 4.26$797
-46%
2024
50.4M
2100
137M
~2500
27.0M
Historical
1950: 6.19M
2000: 27.8M
Long Range
~2200: 125M
~2300: 83.0M
#37
Uganda
EnglishChristianTFR 4.16$1K
-66%
2024
50.0M
2100
121M
~2500
17.0M
Historical
1950: 5.75M
2000: 24.0M
Long Range
~2200: 85.0M
~2300: 51.0M
#38
Spain
Castilian Spanish 74%ChristianTFR 1.22$33K
-81%
2024
47.9M
2100
33.1M
~2500
9.00M
Historical
1950: 28.1M
2000: 41.0M
Long Range
~2200: 19.0M
~2300: 15.0M
#39
Algeria
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.72$5K
-72%
2024
46.8M
2100
64.5M
~2500
13.0M
Historical
1950: 9.02M
2000: 30.9M
Long Range
~2200: 43.0M
~2300: 29.0M
#40
Iraq
ArabicMuslimTFR 3.22$6K
-50%
2024
46.0M
2100
101M
~2500
23.0M
Historical
1950: 5.65M
2000: 24.4M
Long Range
~2200: 83.0M
~2300: 57.0M
#41
Argentina
SpanishChristianTFR 1.50$14K
-89%
2024
45.7M
2100
38.3M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 17.0M
2000: 37.2M
Long Range
~2200: 19.0M
~2300: 11.0M
#42
Afghanistan
Dari PersianMuslimTFR 4.76$414
-27%
2024
42.6M
2100
130M
~2500
31.0M
Historical
1950: 7.78M
2000: 20.1M
Long Range
~2200: 131M
~2300: 91.0M
#43
Yemen
ArabicMuslimTFR 4.50$700
-53%
2024
40.6M
2100
110M
~2500
19.0M
Historical
1950: 4.62M
2000: 19.6M
Long Range
~2200: 91.0M
~2300: 57.0M
#44
Canada
English 59.3%ChristianTFR 1.34$54K
+3%
2024
39.7M
2100
53.6M
~2500
41.0M
Historical
1950: 13.7M
2000: 30.9M
Long Range
~2200: 57.0M
~2300: 55.0M
#45
Poland
Polish 98%ChristianTFR 1.30$22K
-92%
2024
38.5M
2100
19.3M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 24.8M
2000: 38.3M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#46
Morocco
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.21$4K
-97%
2024
38.1M
2100
37.9M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 8.94M
2000: 28.4M
Long Range
~2200: 17.0M
~2300: 9.00M
#47
Angola
PortugueseChristianTFR 5.05$3K
+29%
2024
37.9M
2100
150M
~2500
49.0M
Historical
1950: 4.55M
2000: 16.2M
Long Range
~2200: 177M
~2300: 133M
#48
Ukraine
Ukrainian 67%ChristianTFR 0.99$5K
-97%
2024
37.9M
2100
15.2M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 37.3M
2000: 49.6M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#49
Uzbekistan
Uzbek 74.3%MuslimTFR 3.49$3K
-48%
2024
36.4M
2100
74.4M
~2500
19.0M
Historical
1950: 6.24M
2000: 24.8M
Long Range
~2200: 65.0M
~2300: 45.0M
#50
Malaysia
Bahasa MelayuMuslimTFR 1.54$11K
-58%
2024
35.6M
2100
44.0M
~2500
15.0M
Historical
1950: 6.10M
2000: 23.0M
Long Range
~2200: 31.0M
~2300: 25.0M
#51
Mozambique
Portuguese 9%ChristianTFR 4.69$622
-62%
2024
34.6M
2100
104M
~2500
13.0M
Historical
1950: 5.91M
2000: 18.1M
Long Range
~2200: 91.0M
~2300: 55.0M
#52
Ghana
EnglishChristianTFR 3.34$2K
-68%
2024
34.4M
2100
67.5M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 5.08M
2000: 19.6M
Long Range
~2200: 53.0M
~2300: 33.0M
#53
Peru
SpanishChristianTFR 1.96$8K
-80%
2024
34.2M
2100
38.2M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 7.68M
2000: 26.6M
Long Range
~2200: 23.0M
~2300: 15.0M
#54
Saudi Arabia
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.31$36K
-21%
2024
34.0M
2100
71.0M
~2500
27.0M
Historical
1950: 1.70M
2000: 16.2M
Long Range
~2200: 53.0M
~2300: 43.0M
#55
Madagascar
Malagasy and FrenchChristianTFR 3.91$509
-41%
2024
32.0M
2100
85.3M
~2500
19.0M
Historical
1950: 3.96M
2000: 16.5M
Long Range
~2200: 85.0M
~2300: 57.0M
#56
Ivory Coast
TFR 4.23$3K
-3%
2024
31.9M
2100
104M
~2500
31.0M
Historical
1950: 2.74M
2000: 17.7M
Long Range
~2200: 127M
~2300: 93.0M
#57
Nepal
Nepali 48%HinduTFR 1.96$1K
-90%
2024
29.7M
2100
31.8M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 8.40M
2000: 24.5M
Long Range
~2200: 15.0M
~2300: 9.00M
#58
Cameroon
FrenchChristianTFR 4.26$2K
-14%
2024
29.1M
2100
88.9M
~2500
25.0M
Historical
1950: 4.33M
2000: 14.9M
Long Range
~2200: 95.0M
~2300: 69.0M
#59
Venezuela
SpanishChristianTFR 2.08$4K
-89%
2024
28.4M
2100
28.3M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 5.49M
2000: 24.5M
Long Range
~2200: 15.0M
~2300: 9.00M
#60
Niger
FrenchMuslimTFR 5.94$638
-37%
2024
27.0M
2100
90.8M
~2500
17.0M
Historical
1950: 2.60M
2000: 11.5M
Long Range
~2200: 89.0M
~2300: 57.0M
#61
Australia
English 79%ChristianTFR 1.64$65K
+24%
2024
26.7M
2100
43.1M
~2500
33.0M
Historical
1950: 8.18M
2000: 19.1M
Long Range
~2200: 49.0M
~2300: 45.0M
#62
North Korea
TFR 1.78$2K
-89%
2024
26.5M
2100
19.5M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 11.1M
2000: 23.7M
Long Range
~2200: 9.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#63
Syria
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.70$2K
-72%
2024
24.7M
2100
43.7M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 3.61M
2000: 16.6M
Long Range
~2200: 31.0M
~2300: 19.0M
#64
Mali
FrenchMuslimTFR 5.51$1K
-55%
2024
24.5M
2100
79.4M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 4.70M
2000: 11.6M
Long Range
~2200: 77.0M
~2300: 45.0M
#65
Burkina Faso
FrenchMuslimTFR 4.11$873
-79%
2024
23.5M
2100
49.9M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 4.21M
2000: 11.9M
Long Range
~2200: 39.0M
~2300: 23.0M
#66
Sri Lanka
Sinhala 74%BuddhistTFR 1.95$4K
-87%
2024
23.1M
2100
21.2M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 7.81M
2000: 19.3M
Long Range
~2200: 11.0M
~2300: 7.00M
#67
Malawi
Chichewa 57.2%ChristianTFR 3.59$633
-21%
2024
21.7M
2100
59.1M
~2500
17.0M
Historical
1950: 2.95M
2000: 11.3M
Long Range
~2200: 57.0M
~2300: 41.0M
#68
Zambia
EnglishChristianTFR 4.04$1K
-20%
2024
21.3M
2100
64.5M
~2500
17.0M
Historical
1950: 2.32M
2000: 10.0M
Long Range
~2200: 65.0M
~2300: 47.0M
#69
Kazakhstan
KazakMuslimTFR 2.98$13K
-56%
2024
20.6M
2100
33.7M
~2500
9.00M
Historical
1950: 6.79M
2000: 15.5M
Long Range
~2200: 27.0M
~2300: 21.0M
#70
Chad
FrenchMuslimTFR 6.03$949
-36%
2024
20.3M
2100
69.5M
~2500
13.0M
Historical
1950: 2.53M
2000: 8.51M
Long Range
~2200: 79.0M
~2300: 51.0M
#71
Chile
SpanishChristianTFR 1.14$17K
-95%
2024
19.8M
2100
13.4M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 6.63M
2000: 15.5M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#72
Romania
RomanianChristianTFR 1.71$18K
-95%
2024
19.0M
2100
10.8M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 16.4M
2000: 22.0M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#73
Somalia
SomaliMuslimTFR 6.01$450
-21%
2024
19.0M
2100
67.4M
~2500
15.0M
Historical
1950: 2.21M
2000: 8.84M
Long Range
~2200: 75.0M
~2300: 49.0M
#74
Senegal
FrenchMuslimTFR 3.77$2K
-41%
2024
18.5M
2100
47.0M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 2.56M
2000: 9.97M
Long Range
~2200: 43.0M
~2300: 31.0M
#75
Guatemala
Spanish 60%ChristianTFR 2.29$6K
-84%
2024
18.4M
2100
25.9M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 3.10M
2000: 11.7M
Long Range
~2200: 15.0M
~2300: 9.00M
#76
Netherlands
DutchChristianTFR 1.43$64K
-62%
2024
18.2M
2100
17.5M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 10.1M
2000: 16.1M
Long Range
~2200: 13.0M
~2300: 11.0M
#77
Ecuador
SpanishChristianTFR 1.81$7K
-83%
2024
18.1M
2100
19.1M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 3.52M
2000: 12.7M
Long Range
~2200: 11.0M
~2300: 7.00M
#78
Cambodia
Khmer 95%BuddhistTFR 2.55$2K
-83%
2024
17.6M
2100
22.7M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 4.38M
2000: 12.5M
Long Range
~2200: 13.0M
~2300: 7.00M
#79
Zimbabwe
EnglishChristianTFR 3.67$2K
-82%
2024
16.6M
2100
37.2M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 2.79M
2000: 11.9M
Long Range
~2200: 27.0M
~2300: 15.0M
#80
Guinea
FrenchMuslimTFR 4.13$2K
-66%
2024
14.8M
2100
32.0M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 3.01M
2000: 8.43M
Long Range
~2200: 27.0M
~2300: 15.0M
#81
Benin
FrenchChristianTFR 4.48$1K
-38%
2024
14.5M
2100
39.6M
~2500
9.00M
Historical
1950: 2.25M
2000: 7.22M
Long Range
~2200: 41.0M
~2300: 27.0M
#82
Rwanda
KinyarwandaChristianTFR 3.64$1K
-37%
2024
14.3M
2100
32.8M
~2500
9.00M
Historical
1950: 2.16M
2000: 8.21M
Long Range
~2200: 29.0M
~2300: 21.0M
#83
Burundi
Kirundi and FrenchChristianTFR 4.79$251
-64%
2024
14.0M
2100
37.9M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 2.25M
2000: 6.47M
Long Range
~2200: 33.0M
~2300: 21.0M
#84
Bolivia
SpanishChristianTFR 2.52$4K
-76%
2024
12.4M
2100
17.8M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 3.09M
2000: 8.61M
Long Range
~2200: 13.0M
~2300: 7.00M
#85
Tunisia
ArabicMuslimTFR 1.82$4K
-92%
2024
12.3M
2100
10.7M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 3.61M
2000: 9.76M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#86
South Sudan
EnglishChristianTFR 3.79$420
-75%
2024
11.9M
2100
23.8M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 2.49M
2000: 6.03M
Long Range
~2200: 19.0M
~2300: 11.0M
#87
Haiti
Creole and FrenchChristianTFR 2.63$2K
-92%
2024
11.8M
2100
15.2M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 3.27M
2000: 8.30M
Long Range
~2200: 9.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#88
Belgium
DutchChristianTFR 1.38$55K
-57%
2024
11.7M
2100
11.1M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 8.62M
2000: 10.3M
Long Range
~2200: 9.00M
~2300: 7.00M
#89
Jordan
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.60$4K
-39%
2024
11.6M
2100
21.3M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 439K
2000: 5.39M
Long Range
~2200: 17.0M
~2300: 13.0M
#90
Dominican Republic
SpanishChristianTFR 2.22$11K
-91%
2024
11.4M
2100
11.7M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 2.38M
2000: 8.58M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#91
United Arab Emirates
ArabicMuslimTFR 1.21$50K
-0%
2024
11.0M
2100
26.1M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 75K
2000: 3.49M
Long Range
~2200: 19.0M
~2300: 17.0M
#92
Cuba
SpanishChristianTFR 1.45$10K
-91%
2024
11.0M
2100
5.58M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 5.92M
2000: 11.1M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: < 1M
#93
Honduras
SpanishChristianTFR 2.48$3K
-72%
2024
10.8M
2100
17.0M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.56M
2000: 6.58M
Long Range
~2200: 11.0M
~2300: 7.00M
#94
Czechia
CzechUnaffiliatedTFR 1.46$32K
-72%
2024
10.7M
2100
8.23M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 8.92M
2000: 10.2M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#95
Sweden
SwedishChristianTFR 1.43$55K
-53%
2024
10.6M
2100
11.4M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 7.02M
2000: 8.87M
Long Range
~2200: 9.00M
~2300: 7.00M
#96
Tajikistan
TajikMuslimTFR 3.04$1K
-72%
2024
10.6M
2100
20.2M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.53M
2000: 6.28M
Long Range
~2200: 15.0M
~2300: 9.00M
#97
Papua New Guinea
Tok PisinChristianTFR 3.07$3K
-72%
2024
10.6M
2100
18.6M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.54M
2000: 5.54M
Long Range
~2200: 13.0M
~2300: 9.00M
#98
Portugal
PortugueseChristianTFR 1.51$28K
-71%
2024
10.4M
2100
8.75M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 8.42M
2000: 10.3M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#99
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijani Turkic 89%MuslimTFR 1.67$7K
-71%
2024
10.3M
2100
10.0M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 3.13M
2000: 8.17M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#100
Greece
Greek 99%ChristianTFR 1.34$23K
-90%
2024
10.0M
2100
6.28M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 7.65M
2000: 10.8M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#101
Hungary
MagyarChristianTFR 1.49$22K
-69%
2024
9.68M
2100
7.46M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 9.34M
2000: 10.2M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#102
Togo
FrenchChristianTFR 4.12$1K
-26%
2024
9.52M
2100
26.3M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 1.40M
2000: 5.14M
Long Range
~2200: 29.0M
~2300: 21.0M
#103
Israel
HebrewJewishTFR 2.78$52K
+17%
2024
9.39M
2100
19.7M
~2500
11.0M
Historical
1950: 1.29M
2000: 6.11M
Long Range
~2200: 21.0M
~2300: 17.0M
#104
Austria
GermanChristianTFR 1.32$57K
-67%
2024
9.12M
2100
7.40M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 6.94M
2000: 8.01M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#105
Belarus
BelorussianChristianTFR 1.22$8K
-89%
2024
9.06M
2100
4.35M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 7.13M
2000: 9.99M
Long Range
~2200: < 1M
~2300: < 1M
#106
Switzerland
German 64%ChristianTFR 1.44$101K
-44%
2024
8.92M
2100
9.13M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 4.69M
2000: 7.18M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 7.00M
#107
Sierra Leone
EnglishMuslimTFR 3.70$758
-88%
2024
8.64M
2100
15.9M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 2.00M
2000: 4.42M
Long Range
~2200: 11.0M
~2300: 7.00M
#108
Laos
TFR 2.40$2K
-87%
2024
7.77M
2100
9.26M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 1.68M
2000: 5.43M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#109
Turkmenistan
Turkmen 72%; Russian 12%; Uzbek 9%MuslimTFR 2.66$6K
-87%
2024
7.49M
2100
9.95M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 1.27M
2000: 4.58M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#110
Libya
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.30$6K
-59%
2024
7.38M
2100
9.78M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.13M
2000: 5.31M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#111
Kyrgyzstan
KyrgyzMuslimTFR 2.78$2K
-58%
2024
7.19M
2100
11.7M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.75M
2000: 5.03M
Long Range
~2200: 9.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#112
Paraguay
SpanishChristianTFR 2.42$6K
-86%
2024
6.93M
2100
9.05M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 1.50M
2000: 5.10M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#113
Nicaragua
Spanish 98%ChristianTFR 2.21$3K
-86%
2024
6.92M
2100
8.61M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 1.33M
2000: 5.02M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#114
Bulgaria
Bulgarian 85%ChristianTFR 1.75$16K
-85%
2024
6.76M
2100
3.53M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 7.25M
2000: 8.00M
Long Range
~2200: < 1M
~2300: < 1M
#115
Serbia
SerbianChristianTFR 1.50$12K
-85%
2024
6.74M
2100
3.70M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 6.01M
2000: 7.69M
Long Range
~2200: < 1M
~2300: < 1M
#116
El Salvador
SpanishChristianTFR 1.77$5K
-84%
2024
6.34M
2100
5.07M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 2.18M
2000: 5.94M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: < 1M
#117
Congo
FrenchChristianTFR 4.11$2K
+11%
2024
6.33M
2100
20.0M
~2500
7.00M
Historical
1950: 835K
2000: 3.15M
Long Range
~2200: 23.0M
~2300: 17.0M
#118
Denmark
DanishChristianTFR 1.52$68K
-50%
2024
5.98M
2100
5.86M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 4.27M
2000: 5.34M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#119
Singapore
Mandarin 35%BuddhistTFR 0.95$85K
-83%
2024
5.83M
2100
4.16M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 1.01M
2000: 4.04M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: < 1M
#120
Lebanon
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.23$3K
-83%
2024
5.81M
2100
7.19M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 1.35M
2000: 4.33M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#121
Finland
Finnish 92%ChristianTFR 1.29$53K
-82%
2024
5.62M
2100
4.60M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 4.01M
2000: 5.18M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#122
Liberia
English 20%ChristianTFR 3.86$799
-82%
2024
5.61M
2100
12.7M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 919K
2000: 2.93M
Long Range
~2200: 11.0M
~2300: 5.00M
#123
Norway
Bokmål NorwegianChristianTFR 1.41$87K
-82%
2024
5.58M
2100
5.41M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 3.27M
2000: 4.49M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#124
Slovakia
Slovak 84%ChristianTFR 1.56$25K
-82%
2024
5.51M
2100
3.43M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 3.47M
2000: 5.38M
Long Range
~2200: < 1M
~2300: < 1M
#125
Central African Republic
FrenchChristianTFR 5.95$496
-44%
2024
5.33M
2100
18.8M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.44M
2000: 3.83M
Long Range
~2200: 17.0M
~2300: 11.0M
#126
Oman
ArabicMuslimTFR 2.51$21K
-5%
2024
5.28M
2100
12.1M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 457K
2000: 2.28M
Long Range
~2200: 9.00M
~2300: 7.00M
#127
Ireland
EnglishChristianTFR 1.60$107K
-81%
2024
5.26M
2100
5.29M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 2.91M
2000: 3.80M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#128
New Zealand
EnglishChristianTFR 1.66$49K
-42%
2024
5.21M
2100
5.81M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 1.91M
2000: 3.86M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#129
Mauritania
Hassaniya ArabicMuslimTFR 4.63$2K
-3%
2024
5.17M
2100
17.1M
~2500
5.00M
Historical
1950: 658K
2000: 2.61M
Long Range
~2200: 19.0M
~2300: 13.0M
#130
Costa Rica
SpanishChristianTFR 1.32$17K
-81%
2024
5.13M
2100
3.78M
~2500
< 1M
Historical
1950: 927K
2000: 3.94M
Long Range
~2200: < 1M
~2300: < 1M
#131
Kuwait
ArabicMuslimTFR 1.51$34K
2024
4.93M
2100
9.60M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 154K
2000: 1.95M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#132
Panama
SpanishChristianTFR 2.11$19K
2024
4.52M
2100
5.90M
~2500
Historical
1950: 861K
2000: 3.01M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#133
Croatia
Croatian 96%ChristianTFR 1.47$22K
2024
3.88M
2100
2.14M
~2500
Historical
1950: 3.86M
2000: 4.33M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#134
Georgia
Georgian 71%ChristianTFR 1.80$8K
2024
3.81M
2100
2.97M
~2500
Historical
1950: 3.50M
2000: 4.33M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#135
Eritrea
AfarChristianTFR 3.68$640
2024
3.54M
2100
8.44M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 815K
2000: 2.25M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#136
Mongolia
MongolianBuddhistTFR 2.63$6K
2024
3.48M
2100
5.52M
~2500
Historical
1950: 782K
2000: 2.46M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#137
Uruguay
SpanishChristianTFR 1.40$23K
2024
3.39M
2100
2.25M
~2500
Historical
1950: 2.23M
2000: 3.27M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#138
Bosnia and Herzegovina
BosnianTFR 1.49$9K
2024
3.16M
2100
1.37M
~2500
Historical
1950: 2.69M
2000: 4.16M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#139
Qatar
ArabicMuslimTFR 1.72$82K
2024
3.05M
2100
7.27M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 24K
2000: 645K
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#140
Republic of Moldova
MoldovanChristianTFR 1.73$6K
2024
3.03M
2100
1.49M
~2500
Historical
1950: 2.53M
2000: 4.23M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#141
Namibia
English 7%ChristianTFR 3.21$4K
2024
3.03M
2100
5.90M
~2500
Historical
1950: 515K
2000: 1.82M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#142
Armenia
Armenian 98%ChristianTFR 1.72$8K
2024
2.97M
2100
1.69M
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.38M
2000: 3.13M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#143
Lithuania
Lithuanian 82%ChristianTFR 1.21$28K
2024
2.86M
2100
1.21M
~2500
Historical
1950: 2.43M
2000: 3.50M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#144
Jamaica
EnglishChristianTFR 1.35$8K
2024
2.84M
2100
1.07M
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.41M
2000: 2.61M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#145
Albania
AlbanianMuslimTFR 1.34$10K
2024
2.79M
2100
1.18M
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.25M
2000: 3.17M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#146
Gambia
EnglishMuslimTFR 3.91$883
2024
2.76M
2100
5.70M
~2500
Historical
1950: 307K
2000: 1.46M
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#147
Gabon
FrenchChristianTFR 3.59$8K
2024
2.54M
2100
6.90M
~2500
3.00M
Historical
1950: 473K
2000: 1.28M
Long Range
~2200: 7.00M
~2300: 5.00M
#148
Botswana
English 2%ChristianTFR 2.70$8K
2024
2.52M
2100
3.84M
~2500
Historical
1950: 414K
2000: 1.68M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300:
#149
Lesotho
EnglishChristianTFR 2.66$916
2024
2.34M
2100
3.26M
~2500
Historical
1950: 580K
2000: 2.00M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300:
#150
Guinea-Bissau
PortugueseMuslimTFR 3.76$988
2024
2.20M
2100
4.67M
~2500
Historical
1950: 544K
2000: 1.23M
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#151
Slovenia
Slovenian 91%ChristianTFR 1.58$33K
2024
2.12M
2100
1.63M
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.45M
2000: 1.99M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#152
Equatorial Guinea
SpanishChristianTFR 4.12$7K
2024
1.89M
2100
5.00M
~2500
Historical
1950: 227K
2000: 703K
Long Range
~2200: 5.00M
~2300: 3.00M
#153
Latvia
Latvian 58%ChristianTFR 1.34$23K
2024
1.87M
2100
925K
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.92M
2000: 2.37M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#154
North Macedonia
Macedonian 67%TFR 1.47$9K
2024
1.82M
2100
863K
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.25M
2000: 2.06M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#155
Bahrain
ArabicMuslimTFR 1.80$29K
2024
1.61M
2100
3.09M
~2500
Historical
1950: 117K
2000: 670K
Long Range
~2200: 3.00M
~2300:
#156
Trinidad and Tobago
EnglishChristianTFR 1.54$18K
2024
1.51M
2100
898K
~2500
Historical
1950: 649K
2000: 1.32M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#157
Timor-Leste
ChristianTFR 2.63$2K
2024
1.40M
2100
1.97M
~2500
Historical
1950: 415K
2000: 745K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#158
Estonia
Estonian 67%UnaffiliatedTFR 1.36$30K
2024
1.36M
2100
826K
~2500
Historical
1950: 1.10M
2000: 1.40M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#159
Cyprus
GreekChristianTFR 1.38$37K
2024
1.36M
2100
1.28M
~2500
Historical
1950: 494K
2000: 948K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#160
Mauritius
English less than 1%HinduTFR 1.23$11K
2024
1.27M
2100
582K
~2500
Historical
1950: 526K
2000: 1.22M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#161
Eswatini
EnglishChristianTFR 2.72$4K
2024
1.24M
2100
1.34M
~2500
Historical
1950: 272K
2000: 1.04M
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#162
Djibouti
French and ArabicMuslimTFR 2.62$3K
2024
1.17M
2100
1.84M
~2500
Historical
1950: 62K
2000: 747K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#163
Fiji
EnglishChristianTFR 2.27$6K
2024
929K
2100
879K
~2500
Historical
1950: 310K
2000: 841K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#164
Comoros
Arabic and FrenchMuslimTFR 3.82$2K
2024
867K
2100
1.91M
~2500
Historical
1950: 162K
2000: 536K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#165
Guyana
EnglishChristianTFR 2.39$20K
2024
831K
2100
889K
~2500
Historical
1950: 418K
2000: 765K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#166
Solomon Islands
English 1%–2%ChristianTFR 3.51$2K
2024
819K
2100
1.85M
~2500
Historical
1950: 109K
2000: 440K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#167
Bhutan
DzongkhaBuddhistTFR 1.45$4K
2024
792K
2100
690K
~2500
Historical
1950: 170K
2000: 597K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#168
Luxembourg
LuxermbourgishChristianTFR 1.40$133K
2024
673K
2100
748K
~2500
Historical
1950: 297K
2000: 436K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#169
Montenegro
Serbian/MontenegrinChristianTFR 1.80$12K
2024
638K
2100
326K
~2500
Historical
1950: 403K
2000: 634K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#170
Suriname
DutchChristianTFR 2.23$6K
2024
634K
2100
709K
~2500
Historical
1950: 196K
2000: 477K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#171
Malta
Maltese and EnglishChristianTFR 1.11$41K
2024
540K
2100
360K
~2500
Historical
1950: 295K
2000: 400K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#172
Maldives
Maldivian DhivehiMuslimTFR 1.56$13K
2024
528K
2100
475K
~2500
Historical
1950: 74K
2000: 282K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#173
Cabo Verde
PortugueseChristianTFR 1.51$5K
2024
525K
2100
417K
~2500
Historical
1950: 185K
2000: 453K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#174
Brunei Darussalam
MalayMuslimTFR 1.73$33K
2024
463K
2100
465K
~2500
Historical
1950: 48K
2000: 326K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#175
Belize
EnglishChristianTFR 2.02$7K
2024
417K
2100
447K
~2500
Historical
1950: 69K
2000: 241K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#176
Bahamas
EnglishChristianTFR 1.37$38K
2024
401K
2100
385K
~2500
Historical
1950: 83K
2000: 324K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#177
Iceland
IcelandicChristianTFR 1.52$82K
2024
393K
2100
363K
~2500
Historical
1950: 143K
2000: 281K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#178
Vanuatu
Bislama 23%ChristianTFR 3.57$3K
2024
328K
2100
875K
~2500
Historical
1950: 52K
2000: 186K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#179
Barbados
EnglishChristianTFR 1.71$26K
2024
282K
2100
195K
~2500
Historical
1950: 210K
2000: 262K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#180
Sao Tome and Principe
ChristianTFR 3.60$3K
2024
236K
2100
534K
~2500
Historical
1950: 61K
2000: 144K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#181
Samoa
SamoanChristianTFR 3.80$5K
2024
218K
2100
384K
~2500
Historical
1950: 88K
2000: 182K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#182
Saint Lucia
TFR 1.39$12K
2024
180K
2100
108K
~2500
Historical
1950: 93K
2000: 159K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#183
Kiribati
EnglishChristianTFR 3.12$2K
2024
135K
2100
223K
~2500
Historical
1950: 38K
2000: 89K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#184
Seychelles
Seychellois CreoleCatholicTFR 2.11$21K
2024
130K
2100
116K
~2500
Historical
1950: 38K
2000: 83K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#185
Grenada
EnglishCatholicTFR 1.47$13K
2024
117K
2100
74K
~2500
Historical
1950: 77K
2000: 107K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#186
Micronesia (Fed. States of)
TFR 2.74$4K
2024
113K
2100
128K
~2500
Historical
1950: 32K
2000: 112K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#187
Tonga
TonganChristianTFR 3.10$6K
2024
104K
2100
118K
~2500
Historical
1950: 50K
2000: 103K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#188
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
EnglishProtestantTFR 1.76$9K
2024
101K
2100
64K
~2500
Historical
1950: 62K
2000: 114K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#189
Antigua and Barbuda
EnglishProtestantTFR 1.58$20K
2024
94K
2100
68K
~2500
Historical
1950: 45K
2000: 75K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#190
Andorra
CatalanCatholicTFR 1.09$42K
2024
82K
2100
47K
~2500
Historical
1950: <10K
2000: 66K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#191
Saint Kitts and Nevis
EnglishProtestantTFR 1.53$22K
2024
47K
2100
30K
~2500
Historical
1950: 47K
2000: 45K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#192
Liechtenstein
GermanCatholicTFR 1.54$169K
2024
40K
2100
44K
~2500
Historical
1950: 14K
2000: 33K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#193
Monaco
FrenchCatholicTFR 2.10$234K
2024
39K
2100
47K
~2500
Historical
1950: 20K
2000: 32K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#194
Marshall Islands
MarshalleseProtestantTFR 2.86$6K
2024
38K
2100
24K
~2500
Historical
1950: 13K
2000: 51K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#195
San Marino
ItalianCatholicTFR 1.16$50K
2024
34K
2100
31K
~2500
Historical
1950: 13K
2000: 27K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#196
Palau
PalauanCatholicTFR 1.88$13K
2024
18K
2100
11K
~2500
Historical
1950: <10K
2000: 19K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#197
Nauru
NauruanProtestantTFR 3.29$12K
2024
12K
2100
21K
~2500
Historical
1950: <10K
2000: 10K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
#198
Tuvalu
TuvaluanProtestantTFR 3.17$5K
2024
<10K
2100
12K
~2500
Historical
1950: <10K
2000: <10K
Long Range
~2200:
~2300:
UN verified dataPost-2100 scenario projection
All 192 countries are modeled. In this table, some countries under 5M today may hide very small long-range medians to avoid noisy artifacts; open the country page or hero chart for the full per-country sweep.