How fertility shapes humanity's future
UN data through 2100, then our scenario model to 2500. Drag the slider. Pick a country.
1B trajectories192 nations100 scenarios
Forecast engine
🌍World population forecast
Move the fertility slider to compare long-range population paths after the UN horizon ends in 2100.
View country
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)1.8Below replacementLoading data...
UN data is fixed through 2100. This slider controls the post-2100 scenario tail only.
0.51.02.1 replacement3.04.0
Peak
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Median path
2200
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Median path
2300
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Median path
2500
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Median path
Below 1B by 2500
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Share of trajectories
Loading simulation data
Preparing the world view and long-range scenario band.
Solid black = historical (OWID 1800-1950, UN census 1950-2024). Blue = UN projection to 2100. Colored band = post-2100 scenario (10M simulated trajectories; shading shows the 5th-95th percentile range). All slider positions share the same UN path through 2100, so the chosen TFR only changes the long-range tail. Beyond 2100 these should be read as scenario illustrations, not exact forecasts.
Fertility engine
Global & Country Fertility Rates
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children per woman. At 2.1 (“replacement level”), population stabilizes. The current world average is 2.25 (UN WPP 2024), but two-thirds of humanity already lives below replacement. Select any country to see its fertility trajectory from 1950 to 2100.
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— — Dashed (1900-1950): Gapminder estimates━━━ Solid (1950-2024): UN WPP 2024━━━ Teal: selected country- - - Green dashed: replacement level (2.1)
Loading country data...