Humanity Forecast
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Poland

The largest country in Central Europe by area, Poland sits at the crossroads of the continent with a turbulent history of partitions, invasions, and remarkable resilience. The capital Warsaw was almost entirely rebuilt after its near-total destruction in World War II. Poland has experienced one of Europe's most successful post-communist economic transformations and joined the EU in 2004.

Major cities: Warsaw, Kraków, Łódź, Wrocław

2024
38.5M
UN
2050
32.8M
UN
2100
19.3M
UN
~2200
7.0M
GPU
~2500
3.0M
GPU
Population38.5M
Fertility (TFR)1.30
Life expectancy78.8
Median age41.3
Infant mortality3.7 per 1,000
Pop. density120/km²
Urbanization60%
Youth share (0-14)15%
Land area306,270 km²
LanguagePolish 98%
ReligionChristian
HDI0.906 (#35)
RegionEurope

Latest available year is shown in parentheses where the source series varies across indicators. Governance metrics use World Bank percentile ranks; battle deaths and military spending are context variables, not direct fertility drivers.

UN WPP 2024 — verified data through 2100
YearPopulationTFRLife Exp.CBRCDRNet MigrationGrowth
195024.8M3.6558.330.512.2-19K1.8%
195527.1M3.5563.128.810.1-28K1.9%
196029.6M3.0067.122.67.9-6K1.5%
196531.3M2.5469.417.47.5-22K1.0%
197032.5M2.2569.616.68.4-67K0.8%
197534.0M2.2870.619.18.7-31K1.0%
198035.6M2.2870.519.79.5-42K1.0%
198537.2M2.3270.518.210.1-27K0.8%
199038.1M2.0670.614.410.3-50K0.4%
199538.4M1.6372.011.310.1-53K0.1%
200038.3M1.3773.69.99.7-16K0.0%
200538.1M1.2475.19.69.6-42K0.0%
201038.1M1.4176.311.110.0+120K0.1%
201538.3M1.3277.69.910.0+4K0.0%
202038.2M1.3876.69.412.0+4K-0.3%
2024Now38.5M1.3078.88.010.8-238K-0.3%
202538.1M1.3179.07.811.0-331K-0.3%
203037.2M1.3379.87.011.5-6K-0.5%
203536.2M1.3580.77.012.4-4K-0.5%
204035.2M1.3781.57.313.5-5K-0.6%
204534.0M1.3982.37.514.3-5K-0.7%
205032.8M1.4083.07.214.7-4K-0.8%
205531.5M1.4183.76.514.9-5K-0.8%
206030.1M1.4284.46.115.5-2K-0.9%
206528.7M1.4485.06.116.7-3K-1.1%
207027.1M1.4585.66.418.0-1K-1.2%
207525.5M1.4586.26.718.7-2K-1.2%
208024.0M1.4686.86.818.7-2K-1.2%
208522.7M1.4687.46.617.9-2K-1.1%
209021.5M1.4787.96.316.9-2K-1.1%
209520.4M1.4888.56.316.5-2K-1.0%
210019.3M1.4989.06.416.7-1K-1.0%